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A mere 60 days prior that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the source for the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?

That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have piled up.

Per the data, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against United.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.