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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.