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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.